When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. All Rights Reserved. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. The matters that way on their minds are real. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. hide caption. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? (Go to the bottom of the page. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Ron Elving . Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. 10. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. Until this year. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. . An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Telegram Telegram It's the wrong question. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). That's 14 in a row. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. Arapahoe County. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Trump won 18 of the 19. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). Trump gave them hope. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. 108,000 people. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. 5. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. In 2020, a single. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. The highest percentage being 66.1%. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Really stop reading. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. This county voted with the popular vote each time. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). 11. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. 2016 Election (1135) This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. Want to dive deeper? These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. But that's no longer the case. . In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Demographics (84) The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. 4. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. our Gitlab account where you can It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. 2. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. In their . This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. But it's also not unprecedented. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. Read about our approach to external linking. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? Their emotions and decision making process are real. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. That report was issued on Nov. 12. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. Team up with others in your region, and help out by In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. Dont simply gloss over this. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Thank you for supporting our journalism. Seriously. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. It is easy to gloss over this. 9. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. ET. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. It almost became religious.". The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. "They followed through the whole four years. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. . We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. 6. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. 03:30. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. So, where are the bellwether counties? Free and open-source. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. Watch Hampton City. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment.
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